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美國升息來勢洶洶 工業金屬恐遭逢4年來最大跌勢
根據 S&P Dow Jones Indices 的數據顯示，工業金屬 5 月可能繳出 2012 年以來最差表現。月初至今，標普高盛商品總回報指數 (S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index) 跌幅已高達 8.7% ；專家指出，問題出在美元升值，以及庫存大幅升高所致。大宗商品價格通常與美元走勢相反，若美元下跌，大宗商品對持有非美元貨幣的投資人具有較高的吸引力；反之，若美元走強，大宗商品則多轉弱。可想而知，當美國 6 月升息的可能性再度幅上檯面，帶動美元上揚，大宗商品因此承壓。
S&P Dow Jones Indices 數據顯示，工業金屬係表現最差的資產，其中又以鎳的跌幅最大；在標普高盛商品總回報指數當中，鎳今年已重挫 12%。S&P Dow Jones Indices 的商品與實物資產全球負責人 Jodie Gunzberg 指出，在部分礦區關閉與減產後，金屬價格確實一度翻漲；然而， 5 月庫存大幅上揚，導致價格再度轉跌。
美國聯準會 (Fed) 近來鷹歌嘹亮，包括最新公布的 4 月份政策會議紀錄以及多位決策官員，均暗示 6 月即將升息；若然， Gunzberg 認為工業金屬價格很可能再受打擊，但供應面也可能再度作出調整。
Industrial metals poised to suffer worst month in 4 years
Industrial metals are set to suffer their worst monthly performance since 2012, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index has lost 8.7% month-to-date, as of Monday — on track for its worst month since May 2012, when it lost 9.7%. It’s also having its seventh-worst May performance since 1978, when the index history began.
Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities and real assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, attributed the weak performance in industrial metals, which include copper and lead, to the rising U.S. dollar as well as rising inventories of industrial metals. Copper futures have fallen roughly 9.5% month-to-date on Comex, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has gained about 2.7% for the month. “Industrial metals are some of the most sensitive commodities to the U.S. dollar,” said Gunzberg, in a statement Tuesday. Nickel tops a list of 24 commodities as most susceptible to the rising dollar. The metal drops 1.9% for every 1% rise in the greenback, she said.
Commodities priced in dollars often trade inversely with the dollar, as moves in the U.S. can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies. Year-to-date, nickel is the biggest loser in the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index, down 12%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Meanwhile, Gunzberg said it’s difficult for producers to supply exactly the amount of metals needed to cover demand. “After some mining closures and supply reductions, prices rose to cause suppliers to bring more of the metals to the market,” she said. “This month, inventories rose significantly for copper and lead that together comprise about half the weight in the sector.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy is due next month, and if rates rise, “the dollar may strengthen,” she said. That will “likely hurt the sector, but suppliers may adjust again to limit the price drops.”
根據 S&P Dow Jones Indices 的數據顯示，工業金屬 5 月可能繳出 2012 年以來最差表現。月初至今，標普高盛商品總回報指數 (S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index) 跌幅已高達 8.7% ；專家指出，問題出在美元升值，以及庫存大幅升高所致。大宗商品價格通常與美元走勢相反，若美元下跌，大宗商品對持有非美元貨幣的投資人具有較高的吸引力；反之，若美元走強，大宗商品則多轉弱。可想而知，當美國 6 月升息的可能性再度幅上檯面，帶動美元上揚，大宗商品因此承壓。
S&P Dow Jones Indices 數據顯示，工業金屬係表現最差的資產，其中又以鎳的跌幅最大；在標普高盛商品總回報指數當中，鎳今年已重挫 12%。S&P Dow Jones Indices 的商品與實物資產全球負責人 Jodie Gunzberg 指出，在部分礦區關閉與減產後，金屬價格確實一度翻漲；然而， 5 月庫存大幅上揚，導致價格再度轉跌。
美國聯準會 (Fed) 近來鷹歌嘹亮，包括最新公布的 4 月份政策會議紀錄以及多位決策官員，均暗示 6 月即將升息；若然， Gunzberg 認為工業金屬價格很可能再受打擊，但供應面也可能再度作出調整。
Industrial metals poised to suffer worst month in 4 years
Industrial metals are set to suffer their worst monthly performance since 2012, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index has lost 8.7% month-to-date, as of Monday — on track for its worst month since May 2012, when it lost 9.7%. It’s also having its seventh-worst May performance since 1978, when the index history began.
Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities and real assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, attributed the weak performance in industrial metals, which include copper and lead, to the rising U.S. dollar as well as rising inventories of industrial metals. Copper futures have fallen roughly 9.5% month-to-date on Comex, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has gained about 2.7% for the month. “Industrial metals are some of the most sensitive commodities to the U.S. dollar,” said Gunzberg, in a statement Tuesday. Nickel tops a list of 24 commodities as most susceptible to the rising dollar. The metal drops 1.9% for every 1% rise in the greenback, she said.
Commodities priced in dollars often trade inversely with the dollar, as moves in the U.S. can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies. Year-to-date, nickel is the biggest loser in the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index, down 12%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Meanwhile, Gunzberg said it’s difficult for producers to supply exactly the amount of metals needed to cover demand. “After some mining closures and supply reductions, prices rose to cause suppliers to bring more of the metals to the market,” she said. “This month, inventories rose significantly for copper and lead that together comprise about half the weight in the sector.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy is due next month, and if rates rise, “the dollar may strengthen,” she said. That will “likely hurt the sector, but suppliers may adjust again to limit the price drops.”
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