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下面是中文翻譯與英文原稿,說明的重點是四種人氣指標顯示了股市還有得跌!若以台股來看,融資頻創波段新高,同樣顯示散戶下跌過程中持續逢低買進加碼攤平,一樣,股市還有得跌!
 
1. 市場資訊通訊社《投資人情報 (Investors Intelligence)》從 1963 年開始進行的每周信心調查,尤其關注建議多頭相較於建議中立比例。
2. 美國散戶投資人協會 (American Association of Individual Investors) 的定期市場信心調查,同樣關注多頭相較於中立比例。
3. Hulbert 自家財金刊物《Hulbert Financial Digest》調查的市場信心指數,呈現該刊物追蹤的一系列短期股市表現中建議買進股票的平均曝險。
4. 以及最後,關注有美股「恐慌指數」之稱的 VIX 指數 (芝加哥選擇權交易所波動率指數)(CBOE Volatility Index) 表現。
Hulbert 為了證明美國股市還有得跌,遂將市場信心近期發展從歷史角度來作一比較。他分析了四個不同的信心指標:
 
Worst is yet to come
Commentary: There is still too much bullishness
I concluded that the market’s decline has further to go after placing recent sentiment developments in an historical perspective. I analyzed four different sentiment measures:
The Investors Intelligence weekly survey of newsletter sentiment, data which extends back to 1963. Specifically, I focused on the ratio of bullish advisers in this survey to the total of those who are either bullish or bearish.
The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey. As in the case of Investors Intelligence, I focused on the ratio of bullish responses in the AAII survey to the total of those who reported that they are either bullish or bearish.
The sentiment index maintained by Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD). It represents the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers who are monitored by the HFD (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI).
Finally, I focused on the CBOE’s Volatility Index, or VIX.
 

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